Football betting: Why should follow the lower door? (Part 2)

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In terms of pure expertise, which team is stronger is another matter. In essence, the person who succeeds in betting is not necessarily an expert, it is someone who sees clearly which odds are not professionally unreasonable.

In other words, he clearly saw that the crowd was mistaken in evaluating a particular team, a team “not as strong as it had hoped, in continually winning,” as Graham Taylor said.

During the season, a team in the middle of the standings usually has a zero or no loss period in a given sequence. At the end of that series is the time for you to win the wrong odds. It is counted all the results of 4 professional English football leagues in the past 10 years and found that more than 50% of the teams that have just won 6 consecutive games will lose in the 7th match; More than 50% of the teams that have just lost 6 matches in a row will win the 7th match.

Football betting Why should follow the lower door Part 2 - Football betting: Why should follow the lower door? (Part 2)

Of course, the subject matter aspect must be considered first. A team can continually fail because of a force crisis, internal turmoil, mental breakdown, poor coaches in martial arts. If you cannot find a convincing cause, you can boldly believe that the last series of failures of that team is a coincidence. As we have stated in previous sections: when a coin is flipped 10 times in a row, at the 11th time, the probability of face down / face up is still only 5/5, neither higher nor lower.

Back to a series of random matches in football: a team has just randomly lost 6 matches, then in match 7, that team can completely win or lose an opponent with equal probability of winning/losing. Predict that team will win, not because the chances of winning are higher (say it is only equal), but because the majority think that team will lose, betting companies have to place that team in the underdog.

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